CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-04-10T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-04-10T11:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10471/-1
CME Note: CME associated with large filament eruption situated close to N18E29 starting around 10UTC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-04-14T06:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-04-13T14:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low this period due to a long-duration C1 flare
observed at 11/0202 UTC from Region 2529 (N09E34, Ehi/beta). Region 2529
exhibited some intermediate spot growth and maintained a simple bi-pole
magnetic configuration. New Region 2530 (N16W05, Cao/beta) emerged on
this disk this period and was quiet and stable.

An approximately 10 degree long filament, centered near N18E29, was
observed erupting at about 10/1000 UTC. An associated CME was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NNE limb beginning at 10/1100 UTC.
CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggests a possible
weak, glancing blow at Earth mid to late 13 April. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 11-Apr 13 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 11-Apr 13 2016

            Apr 11     Apr 12     Apr 13
00-03UT        1          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        0          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          3          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          2          4     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        2          4          4     
21-00UT        3          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three
(13 Apr) in response to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream.

Lead Time: 73.72 hour(s)
Difference: 16.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-04-11T05:07Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy